More on "Is it Realistic?"

Ultimately, the Iraqis have to want the rule of law, or it will fall apart even if Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and the extremists are decisively put down. That means the man on the street has to want proper treatment of detainees, quick processing, real tracking from arrest to release/sentence, release where appropriate, punishment where appropriate -- instead of an endless cycle of violent retribution and other extra-legal solutions.

Even more, though, it means the people in charge have to want a non-sectarian and non-corrupt police, judiciary, and corrections system -- and have to be willing to make sacrifices to get there. These elites have the capacity to lead their people down the right road. This is a very hierarchical society, after all, and the feudal tribal structures can be used to our advantage. (An example of turning weakness into strength, which is one of the tenets of counterinsurgency.)

Based on what I've seen so far -- up to and including the parliamentarians and other government officials going on vacation during this crucial period -- I'm not convinced the elites are there. There is pressure on Prime Minister Maliki to fix this, and the hope is that this type of leadership would trickle down. But is Maliki capable of it when he can't even keep his government together?

Stated another way, sure we (the US) could make things a lot better by just running the country and letting a sense of law and order and rule of law take root in the body politic by osmosis over many years -- I'm sympathetic to some of the "benign imperialism"/neocolonialism literature that has come out since 9/11 -- but that's not the mission.

The silver lining to the above: Regional LAOTFs (like the one I visited in Rusafa) could lessen the pressure on the central government and thus be a partial solution. With its deep divisions, Iraq works better as a federation anyway; let the sheiks/provincial leaders deal with the criminals/terrorists in their own neck of the woods. So Ramadi, the site of the next LAOTF, takes on even greater import.